Graduation rates questioned
State works to recalculate how students are counted
By BOBBY AMPEZZAN
Times Herald
Across the Blue Water Area, more than 90% of students are graduating from high school -- a nice number that may be about to plummet this year.
For years, the state has estimated graduation rates by comparing the number of graduates against the number of students who enrolled in the fall. The result is a percentage that doesn't accurately reflect how many kids are dropping out, some officials said.
In August, the state is expected to release the results of a new formula for figuring graduation rates, one that tracks students during the course of four years.
Some people, such as Leslee Fritz, spokeswoman for the state budget office where the Center for Educational Performance and Information is housed, expects the new formula to show fewer students are graduating.
The formula, she said, likely will bring Michigan's graduation rate of 86% closer to the federal average, which was 75% in 2003, the most recent data available. The new rate will be a more accurate number and less of an estimate, Fritz said.
U.S. Secretary of Education Margaret Spellings on Tuesday announced plans to take the first steps toward issuing a federal mandate for how graduation rates are formulated. That plan is in the very early stages, a spokeswoman said, but is expected to address a major weakness in gauging the success of No Child Left Behind -- not everyone is playing on the same field with the same numbers.
By the numbers
At Port Huron Northern High School, where there were 1,635 students in 2006, 92% graduated, according to state data. At Port Huron High School, with a reported enrollment of 1,831, the graduation rate was 99%.
Several seniors who take Paul Crowell's government and current issues class at Northern said they don't believe their school has fewer students reaching graduation than their cross-town rival. At the same time, students said the 92% graduation rate sounded about right based on their experiences.
Graduation rates differ widely depending on the source.
According to the U.S. Department of Education, only about 75% of the nation's high school freshman will graduate with a standard diploma. Michigan is at or slightly below this estimate.
Ryan Olson, director of education policy at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, a Midland think tank, said the state consistently estimated graduation rates 12% higher than federal estimates between 2001 and 2005.
In 2001, he said, two independent research institutions made their own estimates -- the Urban Institute and the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. The Urban Institute estimated the state's graduation rate at 74%. The Manhattan Institute put it at 77%.
"The most important question parents want schools to answer (is) 'How successfully do you move students through the school?' Because most parents don't have an option (where to send their child to school), they should be able to get a straightforward answer on that, but they're not getting it."
Behind the numbers
Several of Crowell's students said they personally know people who have dropped out of high school.
Students often drop out because they get pregnant, get too far behind in their coursework or take on full-time jobs.
Senior Savanna Salgado, 18, of Fort Gratiot said her friend dropped out because he didn't like strict attendance rules. He transferred to the Jefferson Adult Learning Center to earn his General Equivalency Degree, or GED.
Salgado said she has contemplated dropping out "quite a few times," despite having "so many dreams," taking classes at St. Clair County Community College and having been accepted into that school's nursing program.
Salgado said if she dropped out of school, her family would be better off financially.
"It'd be hard for (my parents) because they do want so much for me, and I have a lot of potential and they know it, but they would understand it's a sacrifice I would make to benefit all of us."
What keeps her in school, she said, is only the prospect of potentially earning $30 an hour as a registered nurse.
Left behind
The federal No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 mandated regular achievement assessments.
Soon after it was implemented, however, analysts recognized that states employed different formulas to derive rates, and Michigan and other states began collecting data on freshman classes in order to complete four-year estimates through 2007, Fritz said.
"The difficult thing for the building is tracking the students that leave. You've got kids transferring in and transferring out. Some of those kids, frankly, you don't hear where they go," said Frank Johnson, superintendent of Yale schools.
Deckerville schools Superintendent Alan Broughton called graduation rates a "best-guess" number.
In 2003, the state started implementing the "unique identification code" system. Now, students have a number that follows them even if they change school districts, Fritz said.
That code remains with them only as long as they are enrolled in one of the state's public schools. It does not follow them to private schools or out of state.
When that happens, the state will recognize the report of the last public school district, Fritz said. When a district reports a student has left and the student's number has not been reported by another school, the student is classified as "unknown," and that classification will be counted toward the state's dropout rate, Fritz said.
Carsonville-Port Sanilac schools Superintendent Harold Titus said he hopes the new graduation rates will be more accurate, but he warned that the state's new Michigan Merit Curriculum, which requires students take and pass English and math classes every semester they are in high school, will further erode graduation rates.
"The new challenge to education in the state of Michigan will probably make it even lower (that's why) the state is appealing to (the federal government) to extend the opportunity to graduate to five years," he said.
Contact Bobby Ampezzan at (810) 989-6273 or bampezzan@gannett.com.